80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018

Opportunities presented by the energy transition

11 - 14 June
Copenhagen, Denmark
Closing soon
Call for papers

Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration


Friday 15 June 2018

Title: Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration
Room: F
Convenors: D. Quirk (MGS Energy)
S. Archer (Total)
G. Keith (Total)

Workshop Description

The petroleum industry is tasked with discovering economic volumes of oil and gas and developing them in an optimum way. Despite increasingly advanced technologies to identify, evaluate and produce sub-surface hydrocarbon accumulations, the industry is notoriously overoptimistic in estimating the size of discoveries, conservative when it comes to technical risk and overconfident in geological models. At the same time, companies are becoming increasingly exposed to uncertainty in future prices as well as actions to move away from fossil fuels. The aim of this workshop is to bring together the different practitioners and disciplines striving to create value in the uncertain world of exploration and development. Presentations, posters and discussions will cover a wide spectrum of subjects including resource prediction, volumetric methods, risk assessment, geostatistics and price forecasting. A debate is also planned on why the oil industry is notoriously poor at prediction.

Workshop Programme 

09:00 Welcome
09:15 Overconfidence and Optimism in the Oil Industry
G. Keith (Total)
09:45 Addressing the Causes of Uncalibrated Predictions and Underperformance in Oil & Gas Ventures
M. Bond (Rose & Associates), P. Carragher (Rose & Associates)
10:15 Coffee break 
10:45 Debate - The oil industry is notoriously poor at prediction - Modern software is partly to blame
Introduction by S. Archer (Total)
Proposed by D. Quirk (MGS Energy)
Opposed by C.S. Meulengracht (Schlumberger)
Contributions from the floor
Summation by proposer & opposer
Vote & summary of results
12:45 Lunch break 

Exploration Success Equation
A. Milkov (Colorado School of Mines)

14:30 Analogue Play Statistics for Improved Pre-drill Risking
K. Myers (Westwood Global Energy Group)
15:00 Round table discussions & Poster session
Risk definitions & Assessment
Cognitive biases
Volumetrics uncertainty
Risk & uncertainty in development & production
16:00 Summation of round table discussions
16:30  Closing presentation & wrap-up
17:00 End of workshop

Please note that this programme is subject to change.