80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018

Opportunities presented by the energy transition

11 - 14 June
Copenhagen, Denmark
Call for papers

Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration


Friday 15 June 2018

Title: Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration
Room: F
Convenors: D. Quirk (MGS Energy)
S. Archer (Maersk Oil)
G. Keith

Workshop Description

The petroleum industry is tasked with discovering economic volumes of oil and gas and developing them in an optimum way. Despite increasingly advanced technologies to identify, evaluate and produce sub-surface hydrocarbon accumulations, the industry is notoriously overoptimistic in estimating the size of discoveries, conservative when it comes to technical risk and overconfident in geological models. At the same time, companies are becoming increasingly exposed to uncertainty in future prices as well as actions to move away from fossil fuels. The aim of this workshop is to bring together the different practitioners and disciplines striving to create value in the uncertain world of exploration and development. Presentations, posters and discussions will cover a wide spectrum of subjects including resource prediction, volumetric methods, risk assessment, geostatistics and price forecasting. A debate is also planned on why the oil industry is notoriously poor at prediction.

Workshop Programme 

09:00 Welcome
09:15 Overconfidence and Optimism in the Oil Industry
G. Keith 
09:45 Cognitive Pitfalls in E&P Decision Making - Addressing the causes of underperformance
M. Bond* (Rose & Associates), P. Carragher (Rose & Associates)
10:15 Coffee break 
10:45 Debate - The oil industry is notoriously poor at prediction - Modern software is partly to blame
- Introduction by S. Archer (Maersk Oil)
- Proposed by D. Quirk (MGS Energy)
- Opposed by C.S. Meulengracht (Schlumberger)
Contributions from the floor
Summation by proposer & opposer
Vote & summary of results
12:45 Lunch break 

Exploration Success Equation
A. Milkov* (Colorado School of Mines)

14:30 Analogue Play Statistics for Improved Pre-drill Risking
K. Myers* (Westwood Global Energy Group)

The good, the bad and the ugly of assessing risk and uncertainty 
Round table discussions & 
Poster session
- Introduction by S. Archer (Maersk Oil)
- Including facilitators and posters on:
Risk definitions & Assessment
Cognitive biases and how to deal with them
Volumetrics estimation, including questionnaire themes
Risk & uncertainty in development & production

16:00 Report back on round table discussions
16:20 Review results of questionnaire and discussion on future plans
16:30  Summing up & Close-out
J. Cotton*
16:45 End of workshop

Please note that this programme is subject to change.

The programme can also be downloaded here.