EAGE Short Course on Uncertainty in Reservoir Management
12 - 12 November
Call for papers
Uncertainty arising from lack of precise knowledge about the subsurface is present in all reservoir developments. It can impact significantly on the development plan even making the field uneconomic to develop. Failure to account for it can lead to sub-optimal development with a potential for a large loss in investment or failure to be able to achieve a potential upside. The aim of this course is to give an introduction into how the uncertainty can be quantified and accounted for in production optimisation. To achieve this the course is broken into three main sections. First an introduction to the sources of uncertainty and the basic statistical tools used to quantify it are given. Specific reference will be made to reservoir heterogeneity and the sources of data required to model this. Then a short overview of the geostatistical tools used to incorporate uncertainty into reservoir modelling is made. This will cover the different tools required to model different geological environments. Finally a review of some formal optimisation tools used for making production decisions is made. Specifically these include algorithms such as simulated annealing, genetic algorithms and so on. A key issue is how reservoir uncertainty can be accounted for by these methods. This leads to the use of a variety of techniques such as real options and portfolio optimisation. These methods will be exemplified by by real field examples. the material covered ranges from established practice to current research activities.
Whilst many of the methods described are potentially highly mathematical detailed derivations will not be gone through. Rather the aim of the course is to provide the background required and to achieve an understanding of why these formal methods are needed as well as the potential benefits of using them. Key to this is an introduction to formal decision making techniques, as developed in other industry sectors. At the end of the course participants should have an understanding of the basic vocabulary of the techniques that can be used, or are being developed, to improve production optimisation decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Additionally the limitations of existing methods and need for future research will be discussed. Delivery will be through presentation of the basics and examples of use but it is expected that participants will involve in active discussion. The course is primarily aimed at reservoir engineers but should be accessible to geotechnical specialists in the upstream oil and gas sector.